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Understanding LLMs Requires More Than Statistical Generalization [Paper Reflection]

softbliss by softbliss
May 11, 2025
in Machine Learning
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Understanding LLMs Requires More Than Statistical Generalization [Paper Reflection]
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In our paper, Understanding LLMs Requires More Than Statistical Generalization, we argue that current machine learning theory cannot explain the interesting emergent properties of Large Language Models, such as reasoning or in-context learning. From prior work (e.g., Liu et al., 2023) and our experiments, we’ve seen that these phenomena cannot be explained by reaching globally minimal test loss – the target of statistical generalization. In other words, model comparison based on the test loss is nearly meaningless.

We identified three areas where more research is required:

  • Understanding the role of inductive biases in LLM training, including the role of architecture, data, and optimization.
  • Developing more adequate measures of generalization.
  • Using formal languages to study language models in well-defined scenarios to understand transfer performance.

In this commentary, we focus on diving deeper into the role of inductive biases. Inductive biases affect which solution the neural network converges to, such as the model architecture or the optimization algorithm. For example, Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) favors neural networks with minimum-norm weights.

Inductive biases influence model performance. Even if two models with parameters θ1 and θ2 yield the same training and test loss, their downstream performance can differ.
Inductive biases influence model performance. Even if two models with parameters θ1 and θ2 yield the same training and test loss, their downstream performance can differ.

How do language complexity and model architecture affect generalization ability?

In their Neural Networks and the Chomsky Hierarchy paper published in 2023, Delétang et al. showed how different neural network architectures generalize better for different language types.

Following the well-known Chomsky hierarchy, they distinguished four grammar types (regular, context-free, context-sensitive, and recursively enumerable) and defined corresponding sequence prediction tasks. Then, they trained different model architectures to solve these tasks and evaluated if and how well the model generalized, i.e., if a particular model architecture could handle the required language complexity.

In our position paper, we follow this general approach to expose the interaction of architecture and data in formal languages to gain insights into complexity limitations in natural language processing. We study popular architectures used for language modeling, e.g., Transformers, State-Space Models (SSMs) such as Mamba, the LSTM, and its novel extended version, the xLSTM.

To investigate how these models deal with formal languages of different complexity, we use a simple setup where each language consists only of two rules. During training, we monitor how well the models perform next-token prediction on the (in-distribution) test set, measured by accuracy.

However, our main question is whether these models generalize out-of-distribution. For this, we introduce the notion of rule extrapolation.

Can models adapt to changing grammar rules?

To understand rule extrapolation, let’s start with an example. A simple formal language is the anbn language, where the strings obey two rules:

  • 1
    a’s come before b’s.
  • 2
    The number of a’s and b’s is the same.

Examples of valid strings include “ab” and “aabb,” whereas strings like “baab” (violates rule 1) and “aab” (violates rule 2) are invalid. Having trained on such strings, we feed the models an out-of-distribution (OOD) string, violating rule 1 (e.g., a string where the first token is b). 

We find that most models still obey rule 2 when predicting tokens, which we call rule extrapolation – they do not discard the learned rules entirely but adapt to the new situation in which rule 1 is seemingly no longer relevant. 

This finding is surprising because none of the studied model architectures includes conscious choices to promote rule extrapolation. It emphasizes our point from the position paper that we need to understand the inductive biases of language models to explain emergent (OOD) behavior, such as reasoning or good zero-/few-shot prompting performance.

Efficient LLM training requires understanding what is a complex language for an LLM

According to the Chomsky hierarchy, the context-free anbn language is less complex than the context-sensitive anbncn language, where the n a’s and n b’s are followed by an equal number of c’s.

Despite their different complexity, the two languages seem very similar to humans. Our experiments show that, e.g., Transformers can learn context-free and context-sensitive languages equally well. However, they seem to struggle with regular languages, which are deemed to be much simpler by the Chomsky hierarchy.

Based on this and similar observations, we conclude that language complexity, as the Chomsky hierarchy defines it, is not a suitable predictor for how well a neural network can learn a language. To guide architecture choices in language models, we need better tools to measure the complexity of the language task we want to learn.

It’s an open question what these could look like. Presumably, we’ll need to find different complexity measures for different model architectures that consider their specific inductive biases.

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What’s next?

Understanding how and why LLMs are so successful paves the way to more data-, cost- and energy efficiency. If you want to dive deeper into this topic, our position paper’s “Background” section is full of references, and we discuss numerous concrete research questions.

If you’re new to the field, I particularly recommend Same Pre-training Loss, Better Downstream: Implicit Bias Matters for Language Models (2023) by Liu et al., which nicely demonstrates the shortcomings of current evaluation practices based on the test loss. I also encourage you to check out SGD on Neural Networks Learns Functions of Increasing Complexity (2023) by Nakkiran et al. to understand more deeply how using stochastic gradient descent affects what functions neural networks learn.

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